Somewhat cynical take on the Colombia-Venezuela-Ecuador fracas

It’s hard to know where to begin exactly with the recent diplomatic blow-out between Colombia and its neighbors. We used to all be one nation, “La Gran Colombia”, Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia, along with Panama. That was a long time ago. But the populations are remarkably similar, the cultures, the racial make-up, the standards of living, etc. Regardless, it seems we are always in a delicate diplomatic balance. The three nations are incredibly important commerce partners with each other, and the populations are generally very agreeable with each other; but the governments are always petty in their relationships, from my perspective, at least.The situation has become much more charged since Uribe and Chavez came to power in their respective countries. Both are arrogant, both have Messiah complexes, both have autocratic tendencies, both look to extend their reign as long as possible, and they are at opposite ends of the ideological spectrum.

Uribe is pretty far to the political right (inspiring “fascist” graffiti from the anarchist university student click), has made fast friends with the Bush administration, has a personal vendetta against the FARC as they kidnapped and killed his father, and in the past has been rumored extensively to have dealings with the paramilitaries. His approach to peace upon coming to power was to beef up the Colombian military and ramp up the campaign against the two guerrilla groups (FARC and ELN), while on the other hand playing patty-cake with the paramilitaries offering almost blanket amnesties, requiring no restitution, and leaving most wrongs unrighted. It’s worked to some extent. The paramilitaries are no longer under one united banner (what was the AUC), and many of the former leaders are serving ridiculously light sentences. This is not to say they have disappeared; they are merely more disorganized and less public. The guerrillas have been in a constant back-pedal–the ELN (whom Uribe didn’t hate quite as much) have been able to have some peace-dialogues with the Colombian state, through Cuba’s mediation, and the FARC have been pushed into further and more remote corners throughout most of the country. Another key part of Uribe’s friendship with the US has been to go after the drug-trade, now largely controlled by the guerrillas and paramilitaries, which won him billions (count them, billions) of dollars in US aid–mostly in herbicides and military machinery, almost none for developing infrastructure, rescuing bio-diverse regions, or subsidizing alternative crop initiatives.

Enter Chavez: megalomaniac, inexhaustible blustering bag of hot air, almost falling off the leftist scale, brilliant de-stuffer of straw men, and happy bed-fellow to the FARC. Chavez loves to be overly dramatic (he thinks it’s charismatic), and he approaches international diplomacy with all the delicacy and decorum of a 13 year old Valley girl in a popularity crisis. With his “Revolucion Bolivariana”, he has been marching to bring a new era of 21st century socialism throughout Latin America, extending influence through the massive oil revenues to which he has become privy through major restructuring of Venezuela’s government and nationalization of many previously private-sector industries. Thus, a natural affinity blossomed between his government and the Marxist guerrilla movements in Colombia, although the extent of the relationship has remained fairly obscure. (Just to be clear, the FARC ceased representing the rights of the poor and oppressed ages ago, and are now labeled a terrorist organization by the international community and are considered by most Colombians to be drug-trafficking thugs.)

So more recently, Chavez and Uribe have been squabbling over negotiations with the FARC to have political hostages released–civilians and captured police and soldiers who have been held for years in jungle captivity. Chavez has perhaps three goals: one, to be an international hero; two, to embarrass Uribe for his hard-nosed stance towards dialogue with the FARC and generally be a thorn in his side; third, to legitimize the FARC by making them appear fair and reasonable. Uribe has perhaps one reason for finding every pretext possible to sour the dialogues (in which France has also recently become involved): he hates the FARC and wants only to exterminate them militarily regardless of the heartache of the families whose loved ones are held. All sides (with the exception of France) have been unreasonable and volatile. And through all of this, Colombia has complained that the guerrillas have sought refuge on Venezuelan and Ecuadorian soil, where they can not be pursued by Colombian armed forces. For years, Ecuador has had sovereignty spats with Colombia over incursions in air-space, etc. while Uribe has remained more or less beligerent regarding their complaints, creating diplomatic tension on that front as well. And now Ecuador also has a left-leaning president in Correa.

Several days ago, the Colombian military coordinated a very precise strike a mile or so inside Ecuadorian territory in which they killed the FARC’s second-in-command, Raul Reyes. One questions the convenience and timing of this hit, as Reyes was the key contact in outside hostage negotiations with both France and Venezuela. About a week before, these talks had led to four high-profile hostages being released by the FARC, to the glory of Chavez the savior. Uribe, who quit participating in the talks on some proud pretense last year, was getting a lot of egg on his face.

Immediately following the bombing, commandos dropped into the annihilated camp and recovered three of Reyes’ laptop computers, as well as his body and that of another slain guerrilla. Without waiting for the presence of international observers to verify their findings, the president’s office began extracting information from the computers. Some of the first reports released claimed to show documents evidencing friendly advances between the FARC and Correa. Ecuador flatly denies this, claiming the documents are Colombian inventions to justify the violation of Ecuadorian territory. With no independent observers, it’s just a “he says, she says” situation. Uribe’s office has also claimed to have found evidence on the computers of Chavez paying off the guerrillas with 300 million dollars for the recent release of captives. This is also denied by Venezuela. On the really sensational side, there also is reported evidence of FARC’s plans to obtain “dirty-bomb” uranium.

But while Ecuador has perhaps been the one aggrieved, they have reacted quite soberly in their indignation. (Most Colombians seem to be asking why there should be such indignation over the assassination of a fugitive wanted in Colombia on over 60 counts.) Venezuela, on the other hand, has gone ape. Chavez rattled his sabre as hard as he could by summarily ordering 9,000 troops, accompanied by tanks, to the Colombian border. And he has cut off diplomatic ties, withdrawing and expelling embassadors and has disrupted trade through intermittent border closings and threats to completely seal the border. Colombia is not sending up troops in response. And just today the Organization of American States officially decided not to place sanctions on Colombia for the incursion. On the Venezuelan front, it seems to be primarily political posturing, as befits Chavez’ ego and mid-level paranoia. And it may well be an effort to help defend the FARC on the friendly Venezuelan border and prevent Colombia from making a similar strike to the one made in Ecuador. But I don’t really think a war will come of this. No one really wants that. Not even Chavez is that crazy. As for political scandal, we’ll see what else arises…

~ by blueeyedson on March 6, 2008.